Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
